From Stabilization to Early Confirmation
April 13th 2026
What stands out when liquidity returns—and markets begin to respond
Bottom Line
Something is starting to take shape.
For the second week in a row, markets moved higher - while volatility declined across both equities and bonds.
At the same time:
The Treasury General Account (TGA) has drawn down for two consecutive weeks
Funding conditions remain stable
Global signals show early signs of stabilizing
The system appears to be stabilizing and beginning to respond to improving liquidity conditions.
However, not everything has reset. We are still in the early stages of confirmation.
5-Layer Macro Matrix
Current readings are color-coded based on week-over-week change. Historical columns are shown as neutral reference points for trend context.
Color applies to the Current column only.
Layer 1 · Risk Appetite & Positioning
| Signal | Current 4/11/26 |
1W Ago 4/4/26 |
4W Ago 3/14/26 |
8W Ago 2/13/26 |
11W Ago 1/20/26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Spot | $73,352 | $67,087 | $70,744 | $68,812 | $88,310 |
| SPX | $6,817 | $6,583 | $6,632 | $6,836 | $6,797 |
| % of S&P 500 above 200DMA | 54% | 49% | 49.80% | 66.60% | 65.40% |
| Nasdaq 100 | $25,116 | $24,046 | $24,321 | $24,700 | $24,972 |
| VIX Index | 19.23 | 23.87 | 27.18 | 20.59 | 20.08 |
| MOVE Index | 72.15 | 81.78 | 91.17 | 70.10 | 66.67 |
| Gold | $4,761.90 | $4,651.50 | $5,018.10 | $5,042.00 | $4,763.00 |
Layer 2 · Funding & Liquidity Stability
| Signal | Current | 1W Ago | 4W Ago | 8W Ago | 11W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR | 3.57% | 3.65% | 3.65% | 3.66% | 3.64% |
| Effective FFR | 3.64% | 3.64% | 3.64% | 3.64% | 3.64% |
| 3M Treasury Bill Yield | 3.685% | 3.700% | 3.692% | 3.679% | 3.658% |
| SOFR - T-Bill Spread | -0.115% | -0.050% | -0.042% | -0.019% | -0.018% |
| DXY | 98.697 | 100.185 | 100.494 | 96.884 | 98.559 |
| US10Y - JP10Y Spread | 1.870% | 1.923% | 2.035% | 1.841% | 1.9190% |
| 90-Day AA Financial CP Rate | 3.73% | 3.73% | 3.68% | 3.66% | 3.58% |
| Commercial Paper Spread | 0.045% | 0.030% | -0.012% | -0.019% | -0.078% |
| Overnight Reverse Repo | $0.507b | $0.327b | $0.427b | $0.377b | $3.506b |
| Standing Repo Facility | $0.0b | $0.0b | $0.0b | $0.0b | $0.0b |
Layer 3 · Credit Conditions & Transmission
| Signal | Current | 1W Ago | 4W Ago | 8W Ago | 11W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US High Yield OAS | 2.90% | 3.17% | 3.17% | 2.95% | 2.73% |
| US Corporate OAS | 0.83% | 0.86% | 0.91% | 0.79% | 0.75% |
| HY-IG Spread Differential | 2.07% | 2.31% | 2.26% | 2.16% | 1.98% |
| HYG ETF | $79.96 | $79.56 | $79.20 | $80.85 | $80.88 |
| LQD ETF | $109.20 | $109.12 | $108.17 | $111.59 | $109.90 |
Layer 4 · Global Capital & Cross-Border Flows
| Signal | Current | 1W Ago | 4W Ago | 8W Ago | 11W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) | $60.56 | $56.59 | $56.80 | $61.12 | $57.31 |
| MSCI World ex-US (ACWX) | $72.29 | $68.93 | $68.20 | $73.25 | $69.03 |
| DXY | 98.697 | 100.185 | 100.494 | 96.884 | 98.559 |
| US10Y - JP10Y Spread | 1.870% | 1.923% | 2.035% | 1.841% | 1.9190% |
| China Credit Impulse Proxy | 4637 | 4441 | 4687 | 4660 | 4719 |
| Global PMI (major economies) | — | — | — | — | — |
Layer 5 · Fiscal & Structural Macro Conditions
| Signal | Current | 1W Ago | 4W Ago | 8W Ago | 11W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury Issuance Volume | — | — | — | — | — |
| Treasury General Account (TGA) Balance ($m) | $748,376 | $847,718 | $838,186 | $915,306 | $869,261 |
| TGA Delta (%) | -11.72% | -3.02% | 0.74% | 0.72% | 12.15% |
| Federal Deficit Trajectory | — | — | — | — | — |
| Initial Jobless Claims | — | 219,000 | 205,000 | — | — |
| ISM New Orders | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bank Lending Survey | — | — | — | — | — |
The System Responds to Liquidity
Last week, we observed stabilization. This week, that stabilization has continued to extend further.
Not aggressively. Not decisively.
But enough to begin noticing a pattern.
Equities moved higher again
Bitcoin followed through
Market breadth improved
Volatility declined across both equities and bonds
This is not a breakout.
But it is no longer a one-week event.
It is beginning to look like a response.
Liquidity — The Key Driver
If there is one thread connecting these developments, it is liquidity.
The Treasury General Account has now declined for two consecutive weeks. That is valuable signal.
Because when the TGA draws down:
Liquidity is released back into the system.
As Treasury spends down its balance, reserves move back into the private sector.
And when that happens, even modestly, the system feels it.
What we’re observing
Over the past two weeks, that relationship has become more visible:
Markets drifting higher
Volatility easing
Participation broadening slightly
Nothing extreme. But directionally consistent.
Rather than attributing this to a sudden shift in fundamentals, a simpler explanation may be more appropriate:
Liquidity has improved—and markets are responding to it.
Funding Conditions — Still Stable
At the same time, funding markets remain well-behaved.
SOFR has moved lower
Short-term funding spreads remain contained
There are no signs of stress building beneath the surface.
Why that matters
Even during the recent period of volatility, funding never became a problem.
Now, with liquidity being added:
The system is not tightening—it is slightly loosening at the margin.
Our Interpretation
This is an important backdrop.
Because it allows markets to respond to improved conditions without friction from the funding layer.
In other words:
The system is functioning smoothly enough to transmit liquidity into asset prices.
Global Signal — A Small but Notable Change
One additional development worth noting:
The China credit impulse proxy moved higher this week.
After several weeks of decline, this marks a change in direction.
Why that matters
This is not yet a trend.
But in macro, direction often matters more than level.
A stabilization—or even a pause—in deterioration can be enough to influence expectations.
Our Interpretation
At a minimum, it suggests:
The global backdrop may be stabilizing—at least marginally.
Putting It Together
If we step back, a pattern begins to emerge:
Liquidity has improved (TGA drawdown)
Funding conditions remain stable
Volatility has declined
Markets have responded
What this is, and what it isn’t
This is not a full system reset.
It is not a confirmed new cycle.
It is better described as:
A system responding to improved liquidity conditions, while underlying structure remains largely unchanged
Look out for next week’s newsletter for further insight into the forces shaping today’s markets.